November 2026 Housing Market: Pending Sales Hit the Lowest Since 2021

Published 2026-11-09 · eLoanTree Blog

The housing market froze a little further in November. Redfin's housing market update for the four weeks ending November 1, 2026, released November 5, says the median home-sale price fell 0.4% from a year earlier to $388,604 — the third straight week of annual declines after three years of increases. Pending sales fell to 275,484, down 16.4% year over year, the lowest level in Redfin records dating back to 2021.

At the same time, sellers raised their asking prices. The median asking price rose 2% year over year to $401,860. The gap between what sellers ask and what buyers pay is now $13,256 — and it is the clearest sign of a market where both sides are waiting.

Mortgage rates fell while this happened: Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.18% on November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before. Lower rates did not bring buyers back — at least not yet.

1. The headline numbers

Redfin's update for the four weeks ending November 1, 2026 covers more than 900 U.S. metro areas. The median sale price of $388,604 is down 0.4% from a year earlier, the third straight weekly decline. The median asking price of $401,860 is up 2% over the same period. The median monthly mortgage payment eased to $2,777 — calculated at a 7.24% mortgage rate — a five-week low, because rates and sale prices both edged down.

Activity fell on both sides. Pending sales — homes under contract — fell 0.6% from the prior week to 275,484, down 16.4% year over year and the lowest level in Redfin records dating back to 2021. New listings dropped 1.5% from a week earlier to 346,795, down 4.6% year over year and the lowest since January. Active listings rose 2.1% year over year to 1,501,917, and months of supply reached 4.6 months, up from 4.0 months.

Zillow tells the same story from a different angle: newly pending listings fell 16.8% year over year in October, the biggest annual dip since August 2023 and the slowest pace recorded for October since 2018. Zillow's overall home value index puts the typical home at $364,812, up 0.7% year over year.

2. The longer view: prices still up in most metros

The weekly Redfin numbers look soft, but the quarterly picture from the National Association of Realtors is steadier. NAR's third-quarter metro report, released October 29, 2026, says the national median price for an existing single-family home rose 1.7% from a year earlier to $432,900, with prices rising in 78% of the roughly 235 metro areas it tracks. Prices fell in 21% of markets, and only 4% of metros saw double-digit gains, down from 5%.

The regional split is wide. The Northeast led with a 4.0% gain to a median of $561,500, followed by the Midwest at 3.6% ($342,500) and the South at 1.0% ($374,900). The West was the only region where prices fell, down 0.6% to $629,000.

Affordability barely moved. NAR's numbers show the typical monthly payment on an existing single-family home with 20% down was $2,251 in the third quarter, up $48 from the prior quarter and $69 from a year ago. For first-time buyers, the payment on a typical $368,000 starter home with 10% down was $2,208, which took 36.3% of income — up from 36.0% last quarter but down from 37.0% a year earlier.

3. Pending sales fell in September, too

The November freeze did not start in November. In a news release on October 20, 2026, NAR reported that pending home sales fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025. Every region declined from August: Northeast down 4.2%, Midwest down 6.5%, South down 8.2%, West down 9.2%. All four regions were also down from a year earlier, with the West showing the largest year-over-year drop at 15.0%. NAR's chief economist tied the drop to borrowing costs. The Pending Home Sales Index fell to 66.0, where 100 equals the average level of contract activity in 2001.

Mortgage applications confirm the pause. For the week ending October 30, 2026, overall applications fell 1.2% from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Purchase applications were down 19% year over year, and refinance applications were down 60% year over year — even as Freddie Mac's survey rate fell for a third straight week to 7.18%.

That last number is the puzzle of the month: rates down, applications still down. A 0.06-point weekly move saves about $12 a month on a $300,000 loan. For most buyers, that is not enough to change a decision — and for refinancers, a rate that is still 0.96 points above a year ago is not enough to justify paying thousands in closing costs.

4. Why sellers ask more while buyers pay less

The $13,256 gap between the $401,860 median asking price and the $388,604 median sale price is the market's negotiation in numbers. Sellers list at the price they hope for; buyers pay the price the market supports. When pending sales fall to a five-year low, the gap is a measure of how far apart the two sides are — and it usually closes through price cuts, not through buyers paying more.

For a first-time buyer, the local split matters more than the national average. NAR's 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, also released November 5, 2026, shows first-time buyers are now a median age of 40. A buyer who waits for a national headline to turn may miss a soft local market that is already negotiable — and a buyer in a market where prices still rose 4% may find no discount at all. NAR itself notes that local association data may be more relevant for decisions than national figures.

5. What to watch next

NAR releases October existing-home sales on Thursday, November 12, 2026 — the first full-month sales reading for October. Freddie Mac's next weekly rate survey comes out the same day. The October CPI report arrives November 10, and the Fed's December 8–9 meeting will show whether the strong October jobs report turns into a rate hike.

If rates keep drifting down toward 7% and asking prices keep rising while sale prices fall, the negotiation gap should narrow from the seller's side — through price cuts and concessions — before it narrows from the buyer's side. Until then, the market's message is simple: few people are buying, few people are listing, and the homes that do sell are selling for less than their asking price.